MLB DFS Ace Matrix – Top 5 Pitchers for August 18, 2025 (Main Slate)
Ranked by the Ace Matrix — a sharp grading system crafted by a veteran DFS grinder — blending K Upside, Run Prevention, Win Equity, Leverage, and Role/Pitch Count. This tool distills pitching data into one clear view, layering recent form and opponent splits so you can anchor cash builds and unlock contrarian GPP upside.
Quick Take
- #1 Trevor Rogers – Ace 8.05, FD Salary $10,500, FPPG 38.27. Manage contact to the pull side; stay ahead to limit barrels and leverage park quirks. Opponents show exploitable K pockets vs lefties; neutral-to-positive platoon outlook.
- #2 Robbie Ray – Ace 7.65, FD Salary $9,500, FPPG 34.68. Pitcher-friendly environment supports run prevention; efficiency matters for QS/W path. Opponents show exploitable K pockets vs lefties; neutral-to-positive platoon outlook.
- #3 Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Ace 7.63, FD Salary $10,300, FPPG 35.17. Skills travel but altitude risk adds variance; Ks can still pile up if secondaries land. Lineup has chase-prone segments vs righties; execution of primary offspeed is key.
#1 Trevor Rogers (LHP) — Matchup: BAL@BOS | Ace Matrix: 8.05
Component Score
Recent: Manage contact to the pull side; stay ahead to limit barrels and leverage park quirks.
Opp Splits: Opponents show exploitable K pockets vs lefties; neutral-to-positive platoon outlook.
#2 Robbie Ray (LHP) — Matchup: SF@SD | Ace Matrix: 7.65
Component Score
Recent: Pitcher-friendly environment supports run prevention; efficiency matters for QS/W path.
Opp Splits: Opponents show exploitable K pockets vs lefties; neutral-to-positive platoon outlook.
#3 Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP) — Matchup: LAD@COL | Ace Matrix: 7.63
Component Score
Recent: Skills travel but altitude risk adds variance; Ks can still pile up if secondaries land.
Opp Splits: Lineup has chase-prone segments vs righties; execution of primary offspeed is key.
#4 Spencer Strider (RHP) — Matchup: CWS@ATL | Ace Matrix: 7.09
Component Score
Recent: First-pitch strikes crucial; avoid traffic to neutralize the power pockets.
Opp Splits: Lineup has chase-prone segments vs righties; execution of primary offspeed is key.
#5 Brady Singer (RHP) — Matchup: CIN@LAA | Ace Matrix: 6.88
Component Score
Recent: Trending form aligns with workload; QS path live if command holds and pitch count stretches.
Opp Splits: Lineup has chase-prone segments vs righties; execution of primary offspeed is key.
Ace Matrix Conclusion
The Ace Matrix spotlights Trevor Rogers (FD $10,500, 38.27 FPPG) as the slate’s premier anchor with premium strikeout projection and stable workload. Manage contact to the pull side; stay ahead to limit barrels and leverage park quirks. Opponents show exploitable K pockets vs lefties; neutral-to-positive platoon outlook.
Robbie Ray (FD $9,500, 34.68 FPPG) profiles as a balanced SP1/2 with win equity. Pitcher-friendly environment supports run prevention; efficiency matters for QS/W path. Opponents show exploitable K pockets vs lefties; neutral-to-positive platoon outlook.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (FD $10,300, 35.17 FPPG) offers mid-tier leverage and can smash if ownership trails. Skills travel but altitude risk adds variance; Ks can still pile up if secondaries land. Lineup has chase-prone segments vs righties; execution of primary offspeed is key.
Strategy: lock the strongest Ace for cash builds and pivot to secondary Aces in tournaments, especially where park context (e.g., Coors vs Petco) swings variance and leverage.