MLB DFS Ace Matrix – Top 5 Pitchers for August 17, 2025 (Main Slate)
Ranked by the Ace Matrix — a sharp grading system crafted by a veteran DFS grinder — blending K Upside, Run Prevention, Win Equity, Leverage, and Role/Pitch Count. This tool distills pitching data into one clear view, layering recent form and opponent splits so you can anchor cash builds and unlock contrarian GPP upside.
Quick Take
- #1 Garrett Crochet – Ace 8.3, Salary $10,800, FPPG 43.04. Recent: Breakout K-rate with elite first-pitch strike% and chase; slider feel driving whiffs. Opp Splits: MIA vs LHP inconsistent with chase-prone pockets; park may boost XBH but Ks stay live.
- #2 Nathan Eovaldi – Ace 7.79, Salary $10,000, FPPG 36.6. Recent: Velo steady; splitter usage up in 2-strike counts; walks in check keeps pitch count healthy. Opp Splits: TOR has pop but real swing-and-miss pockets; limits free passes, preserving QS/W path.
- #3 Andrew Abbott – Ace 7.48, Salary $9,500, FPPG 31.85. Recent: Command trending up; four-seam up plays; HRs minimized in recent turns. Opp Splits: MIL streaky vs LHP; chase on elevated heaters gives strikeout path.
#1 Garrett Crochet (LHP) — Matchup: MIA@BOS | Ace Matrix: 8.3
Component Score
Recent: Breakout K-rate with elite first-pitch strike% and chase; slider feel driving whiffs.
Opp Splits: MIA vs LHP inconsistent with chase-prone pockets; park may boost XBH but Ks stay live.
DFS Upside: Slate-best raw K ceiling; Cash/GPP core if salary fits.
#2 Nathan Eovaldi (RHP) — Matchup: TEX@TOR | Ace Matrix: 7.79
Component Score
Recent: Velo steady; splitter usage up in 2-strike counts; walks in check keeps pitch count healthy.
Opp Splits: TOR has pop but real swing-and-miss pockets; limits free passes, preserving QS/W path.
DFS Upside: High floor with 7–9 K path; premium SP1/2.
#3 Andrew Abbott (LHP) — Matchup: MIL@CIN | Ace Matrix: 7.48
Component Score
Recent: Command trending up; four-seam up plays; HRs minimized in recent turns.
Opp Splits: MIL streaky vs LHP; chase on elevated heaters gives strikeout path.
DFS Upside: Mid-tier anchor; QS live with 6–8 K upside.
#4 Jose Berrios (RHP) — Matchup: TEX@TOR | Ace Matrix: 7.32
Component Score
Recent: Curveball landing; barrels suppressed when ahead; workload consistent for QS chance.
Opp Splits: TEX dangerous but will expand when behind; first-pitch strikes key to unlock Ks.
DFS Upside: Cash-viable SP2; GPP ceiling if curve gets whiffs.
#5 Chris Paddack (RHP) — Matchup: DET@MIN | Ace Matrix: 7.05
Component Score
Recent: Changeup usage stabilizing; first time through is strong; needs adjustments second time through.
Opp Splits: DET improved vs RHP but still whiff-prone pockets; Target Field manageable for flies.
DFS Upside: Value SP2; fits balanced builds, viable in cash if salary needed.
Lineup Construction Notes
- Cash: Start with #1 by Ace; #2/#3 if salary crunch.
- GPP: Lowest-owned inside top 3 Ace scores = leverage.
- Late Swap: If chalk fails, pivot down Ace board.