MLB DFS Ace Matrix – Top 5 Pitchers for August 17, 2025 (Main Slate)
Ranked by the Ace Matrix — a sharp grading system crafted by a veteran DFS grinder — blending K Upside, Run Prevention, Win Equity, Leverage, and Role/Pitch Count. This tool distills pitching data into one clear view, layering recent form and opponent splits so you can anchor cash builds and unlock contrarian GPP upside.
Quick Take
- #1 Garrett Crochet – Ace 8.3, FD Salary $10,800, FPPG 43.04. 34% K-rate over the last 30 days with elite slider whiff%. Miami owns a 26% K-rate vs LHP, bottom-third OPS.
- #2 Nathan Eovaldi – Ace 7.79, FD Salary $10,000, FPPG 36.6. 3.20 ERA with 6+ IP in 4 of last 5 starts. Toronto carries a 23% K-rate vs RHP and struggles vs splitters.
- #3 Andrew Abbott – Ace 7.48, FD Salary $9,500, FPPG 31.85. 2.70 ERA across his last 4 starts. Milwaukee strikes out 25% vs LHP with a bottom-5 OPS.
#1 Garrett Crochet (LHP) — Matchup: MIA@BOS | Ace Matrix: 8.3
Component Score
Recent: 34% K-rate over the last 30 days with elite slider whiff%.
Opp Splits: Miami owns a 26% K-rate vs LHP, bottom-third OPS.
DFS Upside:
#2 Nathan Eovaldi (RHP) — Matchup: TEX@TOR | Ace Matrix: 7.79
Component Score
Recent: 3.20 ERA with 6+ IP in 4 of last 5 starts.
Opp Splits: Toronto carries a 23% K-rate vs RHP and struggles vs splitters.
DFS Upside:
#3 Andrew Abbott (LHP) — Matchup: MIL@CIN | Ace Matrix: 7.48
Component Score
Recent: 2.70 ERA across his last 4 starts.
Opp Splits: Milwaukee strikes out 25% vs LHP with a bottom-5 OPS.
DFS Upside:
#4 Jose Berrios (RHP) — Matchup: TEX@TOR | Ace Matrix: 7.32
Component Score
Recent: Curveball generating weak contact, QS in 3 straight.
Opp Splits: Texas expands the zone vs breaking balls, offering K upside.
DFS Upside:
#5 Chris Paddack (RHP) — Matchup: DET@MIN | Ace Matrix: 7.05
Component Score
Recent: Changeup consistency improving; fewer HRs allowed.
Opp Splits: Detroit K% still exploitable vs RHP despite rising power.
DFS Upside:
Ace Matrix Conclusion
The Ace Matrix highlights Garrett Crochet (FD $10,800, 43.04 FPPG) as the slate’s premier anchor. 34% K-rate over the last 30 days with elite slider whiff%. Miami owns a 26% K-rate vs LHP, bottom-third OPS.
Nathan Eovaldi (FD $10,000, 36.6 FPPG) offers stability with win equity and workload upside. 3.20 ERA with 6+ IP in 4 of last 5 starts. Toronto carries a 23% K-rate vs RHP and struggles vs splitters.
Andrew Abbott (FD $9,500, 31.85 FPPG) is the mid-tier GPP lever, capable of smashing if ownership fades. 2.70 ERA across his last 4 starts. Milwaukee strikes out 25% vs LHP with a bottom-5 OPS.
Overall, the Ace Matrix separates clear chalk anchors from leverage pivots. Lock elite K-rate arms in cash, and pivot mid-tier where ownership and matchup edges align in tournaments.